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                  分析:2013年二季度 豬業將全面回暖

                  時間:2013-01-20

                  文章來源:中國三農網  中國是世界上最大的豬肉生產和消費大國, 豬肉是中國人餐桌上必不可少的傳統肉食,豬肉年銷售額高達上萬億元。2012 年國內豬業在經歷了上半年豬價從高位回落至盈虧平衡點以下,下半年又小幅回升得起伏過程。這個過程雖然制造出了一個個空場,但淘汰了落后的產能,加快了豬業的產業化進程。

                    展望豬業未來,2013 年將是散戶繼續退出、規?;M程加快、各行業資本加快進入的一年。我們也相信2013 年在各方面積極因素的推動下,國內豬業將逐漸回暖,二季度中旬,豬業從價格指數、市場需求、行業發展速度等方面都將全面進入上升階段?!?

                  從經濟層面來看

                    隨著十八大結束后經濟、市場供需等方面的維穩紅利褪去,投資者們再度開始重新思考未來國民經濟和市場的走向。2012 年豬糧比價曾一度跌破均盈虧平衡點,使很多投資者損失慘重,隨著年末的到來,各方都會有回收資金的動作,而且隨著時間臨近將愈加明顯。因此大部分投機性質的養殖場、養殖戶將于2012 年底前退出市場,其最終結果會使豬價在一個合理的空間內逐漸上揚。

                    世界經濟仍處在調整期,結構改革不到位和需求增長乏力等問題難以根本改觀,金融危機的影響呈現長期化趨勢。美國和歐盟經濟政策的連續性面臨不確定性。兩大經濟體出臺的經濟復蘇政策短期內對穩定金融市場、降低市場避險情緒、提振需求預期都有積極作用,但由此引發的新一輪為防止本幣升值的全球性貨幣寬松競賽,對短期資本流動和物價上漲都將產生影響。由于新興市場回升動力不足,所以隨著新一輪貨幣寬松,大宗商品價格會逐步走高并維持在相對高位。例如對豬業影響較大的糧食價格將很難回落,這就直接影響了飼料成本,也必然導致豬肉價格的上升。

                  從數據層面來看

                    2012 年下半年以來,國內物價總體呈現較為穩定的增長態勢。特別是進入7月份以后,物價同比增速在2% 左右,7、8、9 月份,物價水平分別為1.8%、2.05% 和1.9%。通過對消費者物價指數(CPI) 的歷史數據分析發現:在物價大幅上漲階段,食品價格的波動起到了至關重要的作用;而在物價低位運行階段,食品價格則起到穩定物價的作用。作為食品的主要構成部分,豬肉在物價的波動中無疑扮演著重要角色。

                    目前,在居民的消費結構中,食品消費仍是最重要的部分,占居民消費比重的30% 左右。食品價格的波動對物價的變動具有重要的意義。食品中豬肉占比為10% 左右,再加上其價格波動幅度較大,豬肉價格波動對食品價格乃至CPI走勢都有很大影響。

                    預計2013 年一季度,豬肉價格將環比呈下降態勢。但是從同比情況看,由于2012 年一季度豬肉價格開始下跌,2013 年一季度豬肉價格同比降幅不會很大,預計在10%~15%,拉低物價0.3~0.45 個點。2013年二季度,豬肉價格將可能出現反彈,考慮到2012 年二季度,豬肉價格降幅加快,2013年二季度豬肉價格同比將出現上漲態勢,這在一定程度上將推動CPI的上漲。

                    從政策層面來看

                    2013 年是“ 十二五”的重要一年,在這一年《現代農業發展規劃》所提出的各項指標以及重要任務都到了落實執行的階段。

                    《規劃》提出,改善農業基礎設施和裝備條件,加速培育一大批設施完備、技術先進、質量安全、環境友好的現代化養殖場。加快實施畜禽良種工程,支持畜禽規?;B殖場(小區)開展標準化改造和建設。

                    《規劃》還要求,提高農業產業化和規?;洜I水平,三農政策推進農業產業化經營跨越式發展。制定扶持農業產業化龍頭企業發展的綜合性政策,啟動實施農業產業化經營跨越發展行動。按照“扶優、扶大、扶強”的原則,選擇一批經營水平好、經濟效益高、輻射帶動能力強的龍頭企業予以重點扶持。依托農產品加工、物流等各類農業園區,選建一批農業產業化示范基地,推進龍頭企業集群發展。引導龍頭企業采取兼并、重組、參股、收購等方式,組建大型企業集團,支持龍頭企業跨區域經營,提升產品研發、精深加工技術水平和裝備能力。鼓勵龍頭企業采取參股、合作等方式,與農戶建立緊密型利益聯結關系。

                    十八大報告明確指出要加快發展現代農業,簡明的意思就是用科學的方法大規模的進行生產用于出售的農產品。這就要求養殖場加快淘汰落后設備、更新改良品種、提高技術能力。根據發展規劃,國家將加大對養殖行業的資金補貼,這將極大地提高養殖戶的積極性。無論是從種豬、豬仔的銷售,還是動物保健、養豬設備、飼料設備的銷售都會呈現一個良好的態勢。

                    還有其他一些因素不可忽視:國際大宗商品價格仍存在上漲風險,國內輸入型通脹壓力將增大;2013 年投資可能升溫,這樣將拉動總需求;勞動力成本進一步上升。預計進入2013 年二季度,國內物價上行壓力將逐漸增大,隨著豬肉供給降低,供求關系將會使豬價啟動新一輪上漲,拉動整個生豬養殖行業的整體回暖。


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